What's up with Boston?

By Nick Pantages

@nick_pantages22

What to do with the Boston Red Sox? The Sox were over the luxury tax and stumbled through a tumultuous, disappointing 78 win season. Help is on the way however. Despite the expected pending free agency of star shortstop Xander Bogaerts and uncertainty in the pitching department, here is what I would do to right the ship in Boston, step by step.

Starting Pitchers-

Returners- Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello

STEP 1- RE-SIGN NATHAN EOVALDI- The Red Sox should re-sign Nathan Eovaldi for the qualifying offer, which projects to be about 19 million dollars. After a season in which he struggled with the long ball and injury, Eovaldi should be healthy and regain the velocity that was zapped from him after his June IL stint. Even with the decrease in velo, Eovaldi still pitched to a 3.27 xFIP over the season, an encouraging sign for the future, and worthy of a second shot on a prove it deal with the qualifying offer.

STEP 2- START GARRETT WHITLOCK AND TANNER HOUCK- Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck will round out the rotation after being 2 of the best bullpen arms a season ago. Both are natural starters, and with a plan and a full ramp-up process before spring training during their rehab from off-season hip and back surgery respectively, they will carry over their bullpen dominance to the rotation.

STEP 3- DECLINE JAMES PAXTON’S TEAM OPTION- The oft injured lefty has a club option for 2 years and 26 million dollars, something I think is overvalued. Although Paxton is a very solid pitcher when healthy, he has not been healthy for 3 years, and 13 million dollars AAV for him may be an overpay for his injury concerns. This leaves Paxton with a 1 year 4 million dollar player option, which he will probably decline as he is very likely to get more than that on the open market.

Relief Pitchers-

Returners- Matt Barnes, John Schreiber, Zack Kelly, Franklin German

STEP 1- TRADE JARREN DURAN AND DARWINZON HERNANDEZ FOR GARRETT CLEAVINGER- Tampa may not be willing to part with the explosive lefty, but Cleavinger only threw 23 innings in 2022 to a 3.91 ERA, nothing special. But, in those innings, he had a 2.51 FIP, 2.74 xFIP, 34.8 K%, 36% CSW%, and below average walk rate. These metrics show Cleavinger, who has the ideal sinker slider mix and high velocity you want out of a modern day reliever, will project well for the future. Duran should be enough to get the trade done, as the former top prospect has had a rough go in his 2 stints with the big league club, but still has potential. Hernandez is a wild lefty with desirable talent that could prove to be Tampa’s next reclamation project. Cleavinger is also controllable, as he has not yet even reached arbitration.

STEP 2- RE-SIGN RICH HILL- The aging lefty still proved he has some left in the tank in 2022, so why not bring him back? His curveball is still very good, with movement that is 4.7 inches above average and a -2 run value. In a long relief/spot starter/possible opener role, Hill could thrive instead of being expected to pitch 3 times into a lineup.

STEP 3- SIGN RAFAEL MONTERO- After a bunch of shaky years in New York, Texas, and Houston, Montero found it in his age 32 season, pitching to a 2.37 ERA with a 2.64 FIP. He also placed in the 88th percentile or above in xwOBA against, hard hit rate, barrel rate, average exit velocity. Montero is a flame thrower and his fastball, averaging 96 miles per hour with a 35% whiff rate, is complemented by a nasty slider and changeup, both with a sub .200 wOBA against. The pitch mix and multi inning potential could be the lead of the back of the Sox pen.

STEP 4- DESIGNATE RYAN BRASIER AND TYLER DANISH FOR ASSIGNMENT- Ryan Brasier, although sporting solid peripherals such as a 3.49 xFIP, had a 5.78 ERA and was 5th percentile in average exit velo and 3rd percentile in hard hit percentage. This does not seem to change things, as Brasier's combined run values of his fastball and sinker were +15. Danish pitched to an ERA above 5 and 4.97 FIP, with a 41% hard hit rate, and an 11.6 K-BB%. His inability to efficiently strike people out and limit hard contact is concerning, and neither Brasier or Danish have much of a place in the 2023 bullpen and beyond.

Hitters-

Returners- Reese McGuire, Connor Wong, Triston Casas, Trevor Story, Christian Arroyo, Alex Verdugo, Kikè Hernandez, Rob Refsnyder, Eric Hosmer

STEP 1- EXTEND RAFAEL DEVERS AND SIGN XANDER BOGAERTS- No stats are needed to justify these signings. This should be Boston’s top priority. I have a contract offer of 9 years/284 million, at about 31.5 AAV should be more than enough to secure Devers, and 6 years/168 million, at 28 AAV, should be enough to lock up our shortstop for good.

STEP 2- SIGN MICHAEL CONFORTO- Conforto did not play in 2022, and this would be a signature low value Chaim Bloom signing. Conforto struggled in 2021 and got hurt in the offseason, but his left handed bat and sure defense in right field would play at Fenway. He accumulated 14.9 fWAR in his ages 24-27 seasons, while piling up a 133 wRC+ and 6 Defensive Runs Saved. Conforto would be a massive right field upgrade that the Sox have been seeking since trading Hunter Renfroe last offseason.

STEP 3- A DESIGNATED HITTER- Anyone could qualify, but I prefer bringing back JD Martinez, at around 2 years 13 million AAV. 84th percentile xwOBA and 87th percentile barrel rate still prove Martinez has a very solid bat. He showed in 2020 he does not care to play for a non-competitive team, which the Sox were in the second half. With an improved roster in 2023 and positive regression towards his expected numbers, Martinez will most likely bounce back.

26 MAN ROSTER-

PITCHERS- SP Chris Sale, SP Nathan Eovaldi, SP Nick Pivetta, SP Brayan Bello, SP Garrett Whitlock, SP Tanner Houck, LHP Rich Hill, RHP Matt Barnes, RHP John Schreiber, RHP Zack Kelly, RHP Franklin German, LHP Garrett Cleavinger, RHP Rafael Montero

LINEUP- 1B Triston Casas, SS Xander Bogaerts, 3B Rafael Devers, DH JD Martinez, RF Michael Conforto, 2B Trevor Story, LF Alex Verdugo, CF Kikè Hernandez, C Reese McGuire

BENCH- C Connor Wong, 1B Eric Hosmer, 2B Christian Arroyo, RF Rob Refsnyder

Overall, I would not make too many changes. Injuries ruined the starting pitching and derailed the season of many key lineup contributors, but when the team was healthy in May, they went on a tear. Bullpen help is needed, but with the additions of Cleavinger and Montero, I believe the Sox have the potential to make a World Series run in 2023 with the right acquisitions.