Edwin Diaz got PAID and Rightfully So. Let's Talk About it
- Cian Hamell-Kelleher
- Nov 8, 2022
- 4 min read
Updated: Dec 11, 2022
By: Cian Hamell-Kelleher
Twitter: cian_kelleher3
It's about damn time. Edwin Diaz has opened the door to a new era of relief pitcher appreciation in baseball. The all-star closer agreed to Major League Baseball's first nine-figure contract for a reliever Sunday, inking a five-year, $102,000,000 deal to stay with the New York Mets. Uncle Stevie has opened up the checkbook once more.
The record-breaking deal is not an out of character move for the Mets. Since hedge-fund billionaire Steve Cohen purchased full ownership of the franchise back in 2020, the hunt for a championship roster has been in full swing, and retaining Diaz was a must.
The bullpen anchor in Queens had a historical season, and that's not an overstatement in the slightest. Don't believe me? Check the stats. Here's where Diaz ranked among all relievers in 2022:
(For information on each statistic, click the links)
And here's where it ranked among all relievers since integration (minimum 30 IP):
4th in FIP (0.90)
2nd in K/9 (17.13)
Tied for 2nd in K% (50.2%)
4th in K-BB% (42.6%)
2nd most Strikeouts by a reliever with less than 70 IP (much more common in today's era, only 16 relievers with 70+ IP in 2022, compared to 60 in 2000)
Basically, all those fancy configurations of numbers and letters are telling you that he was unhittable on a generational scale. But maybe you're sitting here reading those stats thinking "Hey, I could have one good season. Why does this guy get $100,000,000?". Well buddy, pal, friend. He's been doing this for years.
Since entering the league in 2016, among relievers, Diaz ranks:
1st in fWAR (12.3)
3rd in xFIP (2.52)
3rd in SIERA (2.21)
3rd in K/9 (14.81)
2nd in K% (40.3%)
4th in CSW% (33.9%)
2nd in SwStr% (18.8%)
While all of these stats are fine and dandy, they're in the past, they already happened, and Diaz is only going to get older. So why should Mets fans rejoice over the re-signing?
Well for starters, Diaz is 28 years old and will turn 29 before opening day of the 2023 season, so the effects of the aging process will more than likely kick in during his new deal, however, that shouldn't be a worry as he is still in what many would consider to be the prime of his career, even if it is the back half. We have seen hard-throwing relievers of recent such as Liam Hendriks, Aroldis Chapman, and Craig Kimbrel produce top tier numbers into their age-30 seasons and beyond, but guys like that are few and far between, so what signs point to Diaz's success being sustainable?
Elite Two-Pitch Mix:
It's no secret that Diaz possess a plus fastball that plays very well. Its velocity is in the 99th percentile and generated a whiff on 42.1% of swings, but its 41.8% usage rate and -2 run value leave it second fiddle to one of baseball's best pitches, Diaz's elite slider. Opponents slashed .114/.154/.134 against the slider, giving way to a -22 run value, the 3rd best in the majors trailing only Dylan Cease and Shohei Ohtani. Among all pitches, Diaz's slider ranked 5th in run value, due in part to its average velocity of 90.8mph.
Velocity is obviously a factor with both pitches in Diaz's tandem arsenal, and often as a pitcher ages out of their prime, their seen to have a decrease velocity. This may come as a scare, but do not fret Mets fans, because since 2019, Diaz has seen four consecutive seasons in which his average fastball velocity has increased. But say his velocity does slightly decrease two or three years into the deal, there still won't be much of a problem as Diaz was able to post a 57-save (second most in a single season) season in 2018 with the lowest average fastball velocity of his career, 97.5mph.
Statcast Expected Statistics:
Many of the stats listed earlier are Statcast expected statistics used to predict the outcome of an at-bat based on the quality of and amount of contact, not the actual outcome. In terms of these statistics, Diaz has been king.
Through his career so far, he has never fallen outside of the top 9% in xBA, and only once found himself outside the top 6% in xSLG and xwOBA. But why are these "nonsense" stats important?
Statcast metrics are predictive and often show tendencies and flaws in a pitcher. If a player has a major discrepancy in their expected stats and regular stats, for example their BA against is much lower than their xBA against, that usually means the player is lucky and that level of production is not sustainable for a long period of time. Diaz, however, finds himself around a similar number in expected and regular statistics showing that his production is manageable over a longer period. Another green flag for Mets fans.
Environment:
New York City embraced Diaz to his fullest in 2022.
We've all seen clips of him jogging out to mound from the bullpen to a roaring crowd and the thunderous brass melody of Timmy Trumpets, but because it's so damn cool, I'm going to put a video of it anyway:
Chills.
Playing somewhere you love is a huge factor for many players, and the Big Apple seems to be a good spot for Diaz. So long as the Mets continue to win, there is no reason that same love won't be reciprocated by the fans.
Diaz has time and again proven himself to be one of baseball's premiere relief pitchers and shows no signs of slowing down. His stellar performance on the mound is not only clear to the naked eye, but also backed by advanced statistics that garner Diaz worthy of the largest reliver contract in MLB history.
All statistics were found via FanGraphs, BaseballSavant, and PitcherList
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