Picks By Rum: NFL Week 1 TNF Props (Lions @ Chiefs)

Written By: John Rumley (Twitter/X: Jrum1200)

The NFL season is finally back! Thursday marks the first game of the 2023-24 NFL season with an exciting match-up between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Detroit Lions. Vegas holds heavy on the Chiefs as they are -245 favorites, but also a high over/under with the line sitting at 53 total points. Only 1 other game this week has an over/under set at 50+ which indicates a high-scoring, yet favored towards Kansas City type of game. As far as injury reports are concerned, Detroit finally cleared their star receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown of the questionable tag but the Chiefs added their best pass-catcher, Travis Kelce to the report. He hyper-extended his knee during practice Tuesday. Although no word of any ligament damage, a hyper-extension is still very serious and very well might cause Kelce to miss week 1. Today we will be covering 3 props to focus on for the first game of the season. Make sure to use code: 6F7E4 on Fliff sportsbook for a bonus! Follow Jswizzle1200 as well, to access who I'm picking.

Patrick Mahomes Passing Touchdowns Line: 2.5

Odds Via Fliff: Over (+125) Under (-185)

Rum's Pick: Under (-185)

Although Mahomes has been the leading cause for the Chiefs to lead the league in pass yards per game back-to-back years, he my be forced to spread the ball more to his WR core instead of hi go-to option, Travis Kelce. I see Kansas City using the ground game even more Thursday, especially with a healthy Isaiah Pacheco in the backfield. If the game-plan stays true to my prediction, then I don't see enough redzone passes to hit that 3 passing touchdown mark.

Skyy Moore Receiving Yards Line: 45.5

Odds Via Fliff: Over(-125) Under (-120)

Rum's Pick: Over (-125)

The young receiver for the Chiefs will see increased volume as Kansas City let go of JuJu Smith-Schuster this off-season. Again, with the fear of no Kelce, the Chiefs are going to spread the ball when they decide to pass instead of the heavily targeted TE position. I think Skyy Moore gets around 5-6 total targets which is plenty enough for his yards per reception at home (9.2) last season. Look for Mahomes to give Moore some opportunities Thursday night.

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions Line: 6.5

Odds Via Fliff: Over (-145) Under (+100)

Rum's Pick: Over (-145)

Detroit's go to guy should be a favorite for Jarred Goff. Entering his third year, St. Brown looks to continue his high target share with the Lion's offense. Last year he averaged 8.4 targets per game when playing on the road which with his 71% catch on those targets he should b able to hit the over on this prop. With the money line favoring the Chiefs we can expect Detroit to use the pass game more often than the rush attack since they are projected to be trailing a lot during this game.

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Betting Lines: Fliff Sportsbook

Player Data: stathead.com