The Statistical Absurdity of Nikola Jokic

(Photo via NBA.com)

Nikola Jokic is a 2 time MVP winner, and would be likely to 3 peat the award this year if voter fatigue didn’t exist. Everyone respects his greatness, however I’m not sure many realize just how magical the Joker truly is. Whether it is his unmatched counting stats or sitting atop the leaderboard of advanced metrics, Jokic is one of a kind as a center in the history of the NBA.

Since the 2020-2021 season, Jokic is averaging 26.5 points, 12 rebounds, and 8.4 assists a game. The only other player to match Jokic's absurd numbers is the Big O in his triple double season. Russ was close, but just didn’t quite match the rebounding totals Jokic achieved. Notice a trend with the players close to the Joker’s stat line? They are all guards. No big man has sniffed the totals that Jokic puts up every night, which is a theme you should keep in mind as you keep reading.

However, counting stats can be insignificant for the big Serbian. Where he really thrives is his all time dominance over the advanced metrics of basketball.

I do not love advanced metrics for basketball, as I believe they can be incomplete and need context. However, Jokic’s reign on all of them is undeniable. My favorite metric would be True Shooting Percentage, which values the true efficiency of a player.

Jokic’s TS% over the last 3 seasons is a whopping 66%. Among all time big men, this mark has only been bested multiple times by Artis Gilmore, TNT analyst Charles Barkley, and Wilt Chamberlain. Gilmore and Wilt are understandable for this stat, as they mainly only took layups and dunks. Barkley on the other hand actually compares well to the Joker; Barkley was an ultra efficient, MVP winning, do it all big man offensively, as is Jokic.

(Photo via CNBC)

Box plus minus (BPM) is also a stat I don’t mind, as it shows the full contributions of everything a player does. The top 5 single seasons of all time read like this:

Nikola Jokic

LeBron James

Michael Jordan

Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic

If we look at just offense in Box Plus Minus, it is dominated by guards, but Jokic has 2 of the overall top 10 seasons, and the top 3 seasons by big men, with once again, Barkley the guy closest behind him.

The line in the sand between these 2 is what sets Jokic apart from basically every other big man in NBA history, and why we have never seen anything like this. Nikola Jokic is the best passer in the NBA. In case you forgot, he is a 6’11 center.

To prove this, let's take a look at the top 5 leaders in assists this season. I will show their assist numbers, then in parenthesis the amount of time per game they have the ball in their hands, along with their total touches.

Tyrese Haliburton 10.2 (7.6)

Trae Young 9.9 (8.1)

Nikola Jokic 9.5 (4.4)

Luka Doncic 8.9 (9.9)

Ja Morant 8.0 (7.8)

The closest person to Jokic’s pedestrian mark of 4.4 minutes per game (55th in the NBA. and 3rd on his own team) is Haliburton, at over 3 minutes more time per game. His ability to rack up assists with such little on ball time is insane, and shows the level of passer Jokic really is.

Barkley was no slouch as a passer himself, with assist numbers totaling almost 5 a game over his prime. Jokic somehow takes those numbers by Barkley and does it over a half. Jokic’s assist rate is double that of Barkley, and the only other “big man” close to his total is Draymond Green, who goes whole games literally refusing to shoot the basketball.

(Photo via nba.com)

This ability to be an offensive hub of a heliocentric offense in Denver is why Jokic’s skillset is unmatched. We have never seen anything like this in the NBA. When you think of heliocentric offenses, you think of guards, such as James Harden, Luka Doncic, Steph Curry, and even guys like Chris Paul. Never have we seen a center be the primary playmaker of an NBA offense, yet still average over 25 a game while being one of the most efficient high volume scorers ever.

The combination of the volume stats, efficiency, playmaking, and just unicorn status have led me to this final takeaway. Chamberlain, Jabbar, O’Neal, Olajuwon, and Duncan were all great, and are definitely higher on any all time rankings than Jokic is (He turns 28 next month and still has a long time to go), but Nikola Jokic is the best offensive big man the association has ever seen.